Dan:

Each April, as the baseball season is still in its infancy, we watch as favorites struggle out of the gate, and hopeless underdogs tantalize fans as they hover near first. And each year I say the same thing: Talk to me on Memorial Day.

During those early weeks of the season, we don't have enough material to work with in judging what teams are for real and which ones aren't. To me, it seems you can't really take stock of the contenders and pretenders until you reach Memorial Day.

Now, here we are a few days past the holiday weekend, and, as I look at the Major League Baseball standings, I just don't know what to think. With so many pre-season favorites struggling, and so many pre-season clunkers hanging tough, this to date just may be the most topsy-turvy baseball season in recent memory.

As fans oohed and aahed at the early struggles of the Tigers, Indians and Yankees, I patiently waited for them to spend May rising toward the top of the heap. Meanwhile, I've been waiting for the Devil Rays, Athletics, Marlins and Cardinals of the world to plummet back down to their rightful places near the basement. And now that we've passed Memorial Day, I'm still waiting.

Entering June, what are the Rays still doing hanging around? They're good, but not this good, are they? Can you really see this team hanging around til September, or even making a push for October? At this point, I'm hesitant to make a guess either way. Given my Memorial Day theory, they should have started to fade by now. Maybe they'll hang til August . . . but that's got to be it. It's just got to be.

The Yankees? I thought they'd have pitching problems . . . but while I'd like to say I saw this coming, I didn't. This team is not good, and there may be too many holes for them to plug this year.

Still waiting for the Tigers and Indians to play like they are supposed to. Maybe they haven't received the memo that we've reached Memorial Day. And someone please tell Ozzie's Sox they are overdue to start fading. Not too long ago I said they weren't for real, and that the Royals were real. Brilliant.

And what is more surprising: That the Athletics are still contending (and just swept your Sox), or that the Mariners added another ace this year and are absolutely, positively terrible?

I thought the Marlins would be good . . . . good enough to challenge for third place. And the Cardinals should have been making their golf plans for October by now, not thinking about playing baseball in the fall. And remember when we thought the Giants would be so much worse -- SO MUCH WORSE -- than the Padres. Ah, yes. Those were the days.

Dan:

• I have tix for tomorrow night's game against Kansas City. I originally thought we'd be seeing Jon Lester pitch, and I whined about it to everyone. I did not want to see him (even though he's on my fantasy team). He is too frustrating: walks too many, doesn't make it out of the fifth, we should've traded him, etc. . . . . . Oh how I now wish I'd seen Jon Lester pitch.
• How good a catcher is Jason Varitek? He's now caught four no-hitters -- more than any other catcher in history. It was with four different pitchers -- Hideo Nomo, Derek Lowe, and the kids Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester. Not a Nolan Ryan in the bunch. And, consider the times Pedro and Schilling each took no-no's into the ninth. The greatness of a catcher goes way beyond offensive numbers, and when ranking great catchers their whole game needs to be considered, including how good they are at managing a pitching staff and calling a game. Jason Varitek is a great catcher.
• You could just see the stress on Jon Lester's face in the ninth inning.
• Back to Lester being on my fantasy team. Walks, hits, fat pitch counts. This guy has been a frustrating mess this season. I had him benched for two games recently. I even tried to trade him three days ago. If I had benched him tonight, I'd be playing in highway traffic right now. And my asking price for Lester just went way, way up. (Of course, his stock just went way up, and maybe this is the perfect time for me to trade him. Something to ponder.)
• I was so sweating that last out -- with a man on third, a base hit could have robbed my fantasy team of a no-hitter, shutout and complete game. But it all worked out and I'm now right on the heels of my evil brother. I know my fantasy team shouldn't matter so much . . . . but it does.
• You have to be at least a little concerned about the wear and tear on Lester's arm tonight. So many times we've seen pitchers throw no-hitters, or near no-hitters, only to go on to struggle or hit the DL soon after. It can take a terrible toll on a pitcher's arm, and with Lester throwing 130 pitches tonight, it is rather scary. But damn, how exciting.
• Seeing how excited everyone on the Sox were for Lester -- especially Francona's really nice embrace afterward -- just has to make you really like this team. Does anybody get more excited about this stuff than Big Papi? It's just a good team that you can really root for . . . a nice change from the Mike Lansings, Mike Greenwells, Jose Cansecos and Jose Offermans of the past.
• Why I love my wife: While watching a highlight of Jacoby Ellsbury's no-no saving catch, my wife says "You make catches like that all the time, babe." Sure, it's for a beer-league co-ed softball team instead of the major leagues . . . just details.

Dan:

• You have to feel for the Milwaukee Brewers. Sure, the Eric Gagne signing was horrible. But, outside of that, here was a team that started the year with a GREAT shot at winning the NL Central, after a quarter-century of being MIA from the playoffs. They have boatloads of young, talented position players. And they've been sunk this year by a rash of unfortunate injuries. Now, their pitching is paper thin and they are sinking fast. I'd argue that this could end up being one down year before they rise to the top again -- ala the Indians of 2006. But with Ben Sheets possibly gone at the end of this year, this may have been their window of opportunity . . . unless they break the bank for a stud pitcher in the offseason.
• Sure, we've been down this road before with the Yankees; they start off horribly slow, people write them off, and then they storm back the rest of the season and into the playoffs. Those other years, I always looked at the calendar and thought, 'No way are they this bad, and there's too much time left for them to come back.' This year, though, I think they really are in deep trouble. As I said at the beginning of the year, if you are the New York Yankees it is crazy -- absolutely crazy -- to rely on rookies for half your rotation, especially when the other half (outside of Big Wang) is so close to joining AARP. More often than not, rookies don't explode onto the scene. They take years to work in. And, if the Yanks aren't careful this year, they could ruin Ian Kennedy. Sliding Joba into the rotation likely won't solve anything; being a starting pitcher is a different animal from being a setup man, and who knows for sure what Joba will bring to the table. On top of all that, the offense that has carried them for so many years is getting old, real old. Sure, Cano is good, at least much better than he's been hitting. He'll bounce back. Melky is decent, but not a guy who can carry you. Now, take a look at all their superstars. Their career arcs aren't rising, and many are starting the slide downward. In prior years, the Yanks always had the goods to go out and make a mid-season deal. But this year they have so many holes, they'd be better off holding on to their prospects and, if things don't turn around dramatically by July 4, chaulk this up as a rare lost season.
• The Athletics are finally coming back to Earth. Now, what is St. Louis waiting for?
• Scary to see Beckett give up four homers yesterday. Shades of 2006. Gulp.

Dan:

Has there ever been a better example of Manny being Manny than this clip of his catch in Baltimore: Takes a horrible line toward the ball, makes a lucky no-look behind-the-head catch, absent-mindedly runs up to high-five a fan, and then throws it in to double-up the runner. I wouldn't have believed it if I didn't see it. Check it out.

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200805142699480

Dan:

• GM's might be the professionals, but they also might not be any smarter than you. Case in point: The Milwaukee Brewers. Signing Eric Gagne to a $10 million contract was ridiculous -- a fact almost everyone pointed out at the time they signed him. Sure, some in Milwaukee may have had visions of him returning to form, just like Boston fans once had visions of Andre Dawson, Jose Canseco, Ricky Henderson, Jack Clark, Kevin Mitchell, and many, many more has-beens returning to form. Doesn't happen. And $10 million? Who were they bidding against? The Answer: Themselves. After Gagne's atrocious second-half last year, Milwaukee got played. Now Gagne has lost the closer's job (for now), and the Brewers have a washed-up middle reliever taking up 1/8 of their payroll. What was their GM thinking? Despite what Theo and other baseball people say about "the professionals," turns out they are often just as dumb as the rest of us . . . and quite often even more so.
• Joe Morgan should be fired, and networks don't care how bad broadcasters suck. Actually, this revelation is nothing new. It was just reinforced this week. At least Joe Morgan seems to like our young outfielder, Jacoby Ellswood. Does Joe Morgan even watch baseball?
• We are stuck with Julio Lugo. This weekend, I heard some ESPN knucklehead saying the Sox defense was very good, making his case with this statement: "Take away Julio Lugo, and the Red Sox only have 10 errors." Oh, how we wish we could take away Julio Lugo. (Theo, see the above section on GMs.) No matter, how much we bellyache about it, Lugo is our shortstop this season. He has a terrible contract no one wants, and forget about replacing him with an unproven rookie. Ain't gonna happen. Now, I've heard some people saying, well, we won a Series with him last year. I would like to amend that statement and say: We won a Series last year in spite of him. Although Lugo is a headache, if that is our biggest problem, I'll take it. We can still win it all . . . in spite of him.
• Lowry is our shortstop next season. No, he won't supplant Lugo this year. But expect Lowry to take over next season, ala Ellsbury-Coco. Lugo is just too bad to be at short through 2010. Sox brass would be reluctant to go to a young rookie like Lowry now, so they are looking to ease him in over this season, much like they did with Ellsbury. But look for them to dump Lugo in the offseason rather than bring him back as a disgruntled backup infielder next year. They'll eat much of his contract, like Renteria and Offerman, and pay him to play elsewhere. But watch him play now and then tell me it won't be worth it.
• The Celtics are not a championship team. Watching this team in the playoffs has so far been the ultimate exercise in frustration. And, after watching them drop two in Cleveland, I've sworn off watching the rest of this series. I loved watching Kevin Garnett this season. But, for all his pre-game hollering and chest-thumping passion, he has no fire when it gets to crunch time. In fact, it seems nobody does. This season has gone from "what a great collection of unselfish players" to "where is a leader on this team? Would somebody please step up!" Great teams almost always have a leader who steps up, demands the ball, and looks to shoot, challenging the opposition to stop him. Bird, Magic, Jordan, Olajawon, Duncan, all could take over a game when it got to crunch time. Instead of that, we get stuck with Garnett who gets the ball in the paint, and instead of looking to shoot, kicks it out to the likes of James Posey. Against the Hawks, and now the Cavs, Garnett has disappeared in close games down the stretch. Of course, no one else has stepped up either - Pierce? Allen? When games get close now, the Celtics look timid and full of doubt. And, if they were going to step it up, they would have by now. This team is done.

Jason

It's hard to believe, but the 2008 MLB season is just about 25% complete. There's a lot of ball left to be played, for sure. We also have some good data to look at the Pythagorean standings to see what teams are under or over performing in the win column. The complete standings are below. Here are a few things that stand out to me.

AL East -
Toronto really is this bad. They've only under preformed by a little more than a game. With Wells now hurt, it looking like it will be another disappointing year from the team north of the border. It's too bad to. Come next year, Toronto might be the standard pick for 5th in the AL East - it's going to be a tough division.

AL Central
Cleveland has under preformed by nearly three games - which is huge. They appear in good shape to right the ship and win the division.

AL West
What's more surprising? The fact that the Angles are over performing or that the A's have under preformed. Not having seen any A's games outside of Japan this year, I'm not really up on the team. Guess I'll need to spend some time watching, but how can they be this good? If it's the youth, will it last?

NL East
Atlanta has under preformed by 4 games and the Marlins have over preformed by 3. All the talk before the season was about the Phillies and the Mets. However, its plausible that two teams from this division will make the playoff this year and both will play well south of the Mason-Dixon line. I'm not saying its going to happen (Go Phillies!). I'm only pointing out that base on a quarter of the season - it's a real possibility.

NL Central
I hate to say it but, ... the Cubs are a darn good team. St Louis too appears destined to make my last-place pick for them continue to look horrible. Another shock is the Brewers. You'd think a team with so many blown saves would be under performing - but they aren't. I'm still a believer in them, but they need to have a really good next month - or it might start getting late early. And then there are those almost 500 Buccos! The pitching is starting to come together and the bats are OK. A word to the rest of the league - don't let this team start to believe in themselves.

NL West
Bad news for the Giant - you've been over performing at 16 -22. Worse news for the Padres 14-24 seems to suit you fine. The Diamond Backs are clearly the cream of the crop here.

W%=[(Runs Scored)^2]/[(Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Allowed)^2]

Pythagorean Winning Percentage.
Boston 0.587 1.1
Tampa Bay 0.549 0.7
NY Yankees 0.509 -0.3
Toronto 0.483 -1.4
Baltimore 0.465 1.3

Cleveland 0.576 -2.8
Chicago Sox 0.564 -2.3
Minnesota 0.480 1.2
Detroit 0.426 -0.2
Kansas City 0.400 1.2

Oakland 0.625 -1.4
LA Angels 0.500 2.5
Seattle 0.430 -1.8
Texas 0.418 1.7

Atlanta 0.632 -4.1
NY Mets 0.542 0.0
Florida 0.540 3.0
Philadelphia 0.528 0.4
Washington 0.370 0.9

Chicago Cubs 0.641 -1.7
St. Louis 0.569 0.8
Houston 0.554 -0.1
Pittsburgh 0.455 0.6
Milwaukee 0.438 1.8
Cincinnati 0.418 -0.9

Arizona 0.617 -0.4
LA Dodgers 0.548 -1.3
Colorado 0.407 -0.5
San Francisco 0.361 2.3
San Diego 0.354 0.6

Dan:

• Listening to Cedric "I Am A Crazy Person" Maxwell on the radio and Tommy "Super-Homer" Heinsen on TV during Celtics games has really, really -- REALLY-- made me appreciate the quality of the Red Sox broadcasters.
• You have to like how the season has gone so far. The Sox are at the top of the American League, and you just have that feeling that they haven't even started playing to their full abilities yet.
• The way things stand right now, it's hard to see where the American League Wildcard will come from this season. My suspicions about the Yankees pitching staff is so far proving mostly true, although their ability to go out and get an arm or two mid-season may give them an advantage. The AL Central has so far been mediocre top to bottom. In fact, it seems the entire American League (outside of the Angels and Sox) are treading .500. And don't talk to me about the Athletics; there's no way they are this good. In fact, if they keep up this success it could prove trouble for Billy Beane who no doubt knows this team isn't a real contender and wants to justify dealing some players mid-season to boost his stock of young talent.
• For fans of The Office: If you want a laugh, check out Dwight's chart from the May 1 show, now posted online at http://www.nbc.com/The_Office/downloads/dunder_mifflin_org_chart.pdf.
• I recently said the Marlins were for real. But I'm not sure I really believed it. They sure are making me look smart.
• Meanwhile, the Cardinals are making me look really stupid. They just can not be this good.
• Lost really is that good of a show.

• You have to feel for the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite what many Cubs fans have told me, the Brewers really did have a great chance to win that division this year. But their pitching is decimated with injuries, and it looks like they may plummet into mediocrity this season. If that's the case: Go Cards . . . or anyone but the Cubs.

• Travis Hafner is single-handedly screwing me out of a fantasy baseball championship. As if I needed any more reason to hate the Indians (see my previous post).