Jason's 2009 AL Predictions

Jason

Well, it's time for that annual rite when I demonstrate my futility in predicting future events. Reviewing last year, I did correctly get the Phils in the World Series (though I had them losing to Cleveland). I said good things about the Rays having the potential to contend. I stated that the Blue Jays would finish ahead of the Yankees - they didn't in the standings that count, but they did in projected wins (93 to 87). Oh, and I was horribly wrong about the Pirates having possibly the best pitching staff in their division.

So, why do this? Well, it's to prove that as bad I might be, I'm still way better than my brother. The only prediction that he's getting right this year (except were we agree) is the one about me not making a blog post between the announcement of the hall of fame results and the preseason predictions.

AL East:
Boston
Tampa Bay * (wild card)
Toronto
New York
Baltimore

Boston is no surprise. They've a great rotation and a heck of a line-up. Personally, I'd take Jason Bay over Manny this year, given that Bay is in the peak of his career and Manny is a few years past his. Pedroia keeps getting better too; he might even be better than Utley. Last year Beckett was 12-10, that's not happening this year. Oh, and there bullpen is without question the best in baseball....The Rays bats will carry them this year. Their arms will regress a bit and the bullpen will be vulnerable. Still, they finish around 90 wins. ... Blue Jays had 93 predicted wins last year. They've got Travis Snider ready to smash his way into the league, Rois and Wells in their prime, and Rolen and Millar for veteran leadership and some power at times. It's a lineup that's among the best in the AL. They also have the best pitcher going every 5 days. After that its tough, but I'm thinking that their bats will be good enough to keep them at .500 when Roy isn't on the mound, while they'll win 75% of the time he is. That's good for 90 wins.... The Yankees lineup is good, but not great. Their bullpen is thin, so they'll need their pitching to push them into the playoffs. CC will try to carry them all the way there, but it will be too much for him to do alone. Burnet is a mix of Kevin Brown and Carl Pavano. He never won 18 games before last year, so he can't be expected to do that again. The rest of the staff is solid, of course. The problem, though, is that their going to have to get 30 outs a game playing in front of the Yankees D. After a while that will wear even the best of them down.

AL Central
Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City
Things weren't as good as everyone though they were in Detroit last year and there not as bad as people think they are now. Tigers have an elite line-up and the potential to have a good rotation. They could finish first or last. Methinks they produce this year. ... Cleveland should have been so much better last year. They might have the bats this year, if Hafner returns to form. The back end of the rotation is thin. I wouldn't want to face them in a short series, but 162-game season is another matter....Chicago, the same old collection of solid vets and one heck of a youngster in Quentin. Probably not enough of bats or arms to be more than a .500 +/- 5 games team.... Minnesota, the early season injuries don't portend well for them. Would need everything to go well from May one - and that's just not likely to happen. KC, Are they this years Devil Rays? No. They have Sindey Ponson as their #3 starter. They might move out of the cellar and have some good games, but it will be tough of them to win 81.

AL West:
Los Angeles
Texas
Seattle
Oakland

I really, really didn't want to list the Angels first. Their line-up is good, but not great. The pitching has injury concerns and holes. But, really, which other team could win this division? The Rangers? It's the same old song and dance for them - not enough arms. Seattle? They could have the arms, but they probably don't have the bats. The A's? They could have the bats, but they've got three rookies in their rotation. As good as they might be, I just don't see a pitching staff that thin on experience going too far. So, it's the Angels by default, but I'd love to play them in a short series.

AL ROY: T. Snider, TOR
AL Cy Young: R. Halladay, TOR
AL MVP: M. Cabrera, DET

Division Playoffs:
Angels V Red Sox
Devil Rays V Tigers

ALCS
Tigers V Red Sox

AL Champ
Red Sox (unlike Dan, I don't pick them every year)