Manny Thoughts

Dan:

Since Manny's positive test, all the so-called baseball experts have been climbing over each other to proclaim that they aren't surprised, that nobody surprises them anymore. That's convenient -- just blanketing everyone means you don't have to think about it and do any analysis . . . and you'll always be right whenever someone tests positive. Now if somebody not obvious like an Ichiro or Ken Griffey tests positive, they can smuggly proclaim "I'm not surprised."

The fact is, Manny's positive test is somewhat surprising. If you take the time to analyze his numbers, he's been consistent since the time he came up with the Indians in the early 1990s. Throughout his career, he's steadily been that .300, 35, 120 hitter. Whereas other steroid suspects saw a dramatic (and suspicious) jump in their numbers -- McGwuire, Sosa, Bonds, Brady Anderson, Luis Gonzalez -- Manny's numbers stayed level throughout the Steroid Era. Given the type of hitter he is, one would suspect that he might have jumped to a 60-home-run guy during that time had he been on 'roids. The only time his production took a dramatic jump was last year.

So what are we to think? Has he been taking them since he came up in the early 1990s and just maintained steady numbers? Or (perhaps more likely) has he started taking them in recent years as his production has started to decline . . . leading to his explosive production with Los Angeles. We'll probably never know.