Preliminary Off-Season Thoughts

Dan:

In the words of Mark McGwuire: "I'm not here to talk about the past."

Let's, for a moment, forget that ALDS with the Angels ever happened. Instead, let's bring hope back to Red Sox Nation and talk about the future . . . unless the Sox fail to bring back Jason Bay. Then forget about hope and save yourselves, cuz this ship is sinking. So, let's take a look at issues the Sox face this winter.

JASON BAY - The Red Sox absolutely, positively NEED to bring back Jason Bay. Rarely will I say the Sox "need" anybody. But the fact is the team's weakest link this year was its offense. If the Sox lose their best offensive player (Bay), they likely won't be able to make the offensive upgrades they need next season. The free agent market for bats this season is especially thin (forget Matt Holliday, the most overrated bat out there). And if the Sox land a good bat in a trade - like Adrian Gonzalez - but lose Bay, they'll be swapping bats rather than making a significant offensive improvement next year (which would be keeping Bay and getting a Gonzalez). What scares me to death is there is no reason the Yankees won't let Johnny Damon walk and instead throw a ton of money at Bay - which improves the Yankees offense AND hurts the Red Sox. This scares me.

JONATHON PAPELBON - I've been shocked at the number of people clammering to trade Paps since his blown save the other day. Sox Nation needs to get a grip. As I've said before, every great closer has blown big games (Rivera, Eck, Hoffman, Gossage). What makes them great is their ability to brush it off and come back. Papelbon has shown he can do it. Why would you mess with that? Did we learn nothing from the Closer By Committee fiasco that started the Theo administration in early 2003? It takes a certain type of mentality (or craziness) to be a closer, and Paps has that. Bard has great stuff, but we don't know if he has the mental toughness to be a closer. He could instead be the next Billy Koch. That being said, the promise of Bard does give the Sox flexibility should it take dealing a Papelbon to bring a bigtime bat like Adrian Gonzalez in return.

ADRIAN GONZALEZ - In case you haven't yet noticed, I want the Sox to back the truck up to land San Diego firstbaseman Adrian Gonzalez. He is a young, dynamic bat that could help this offense. And San Diego will be hiring a new GM (Jed Hoyer?) soon who will likely be looking to stock up on young talent. Slot A-Gonz into first, move Youk to third and . . .

MIKE LOWELL - He's been a great player for the Sox for these past few seasons, but his best years are well-behind him. Injuries make him unreliable and limit his mobility in the field. If the Sox can find a better bat, they need to move on. The only way I see Lowell staying in that situation is if he was a platoon DH with . . .

DAVID ORTIZ - Undoubtedly my favorite baseball player of all-time. So it pains me to say this. I know he came back big in the second-half, and had impressive numbers as a result. Still, how many meaningful times did Papi come through this year against good pitching. Not many. He wasn't a factor in the playoffs, and didn't look like there was any hope he could be. Papi will never again be the great hitter he once was, and I'd say it was time for the Sox to move on, EXCEPT . . . tell me where the Sox are going to get another DH to replace him given how weak the free-agent market is. Assuming they keep Bay, the Sox are going to need to find a home for a new bat, and that will be in either Lowell's or Ortiz's slot. Given Lowell's health issues, I wouldn't be surprised if they dump Lowell, keep Ortiz at DH this year, and then try to replace him after next season.

JASON VARITEK - It's hard to watch cornerstones of the 2004 championship team like Papi and Tek age and have their skills diminish. At this point, everyone has to accept that Tek is done. Even, probably, Tek. It wouldn't surprise me to see him retire this offseason (but in some way that keeps that $3 mill option). At this point, I'm not sure the Sox offense can afford to have him as the backup catcher.